Fiscal crises /
A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund,
[2017]
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| Series: | IMF working paper ;
WP/17/86. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | CONNECT |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Gerling, Kerstin, |e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Fiscal crises / |c by Kerstin Gerling [and four others]. |
| 264 | 1 | |a [Washington, D.C.] : |b International Monetary Fund, |c [2017] | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2017 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper, |x 1018-5941 ; |v WP/17/86 | |
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Content; Abstract; I. Introduction; II. Database of Fiscal Crisis Episodes; A. Conceptual Framework; B. Identification Methodology and Data Issues; C. Key Characteristics of Fiscal Crises; III. Economic Outcomes and Policies Around Fiscal Crises; A. The Dynamics Around Fiscal Crises; B. Twin Crises; C. The Long-Term Growth and Debt Impact; IV. Conclusion; References; Appendix; Tables; Table 2.1. Identification Methodology and Data Sources; Table 2.2. Number of Identified Fiscal Crisis Episodes (1970-2015); Table 2.3. Comparison of Identified Fiscal Crisis Episodes (1970-2015). | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Table 2.4. Triggering Criteria per Country GroupsTable 3.1. Key Macro Variables Before and During Crises; Figures; Figure 1.1. Ten of the Worst Crises Since 2005; Figure 2.1. Number of Crisis Episodes per Decade (1970-2015); Figure 2.2. Number of Crisis Criteria Triggered per Decade (1970-2015); Figure 2.3. Average Real GDP p.c. Growth; Figure 2.4. Overlap between Fiscal, Banking, and Currency Crises; Figure 2.5. Real GDP p.c. Growth-Before and During the Crisis; Figure 3.1. Actual Deviation of Real GDP p.c. from Trend; Annexes; 1. Data Sources; Appendix Tables. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Appendix Table 1. Sample CountriesAppendix Table 2. Number of Fiscal Crisis Years; Appendix Table 3. Onset of Fiscal Crises-Confluence of Criteria; Appendix Table 4. Fiscal Crisis Years-Overlap between Fulfilled Criteria; Appendix Table 5. Percent of Episodes with Negative Real GDP p.c. Growth; Appendix Figures; Appendix Figure 1. Event Study-Key Macro-Fiscal Variables; Appendix Figure 2. Event Study along Country Groups-Public Debt, Growth, and Prices; Appendix Figure 3. Event Study along Country Groups-Key Fiscal Indicators. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Appendix Figure 4. Event Study along Crisis Criteria-Key Macro-Fiscal VariablesAppendix Figure 5. Disaggregation of Credit Events Criterion-Public Debt and Growth; Appendix Figure 6. Twin Fiscal-Banking Crises-Public Debt and Growth; Appendix Figure 7. Twin Fiscal-Currency Crises-Public Debt and Growth; Appendix Figure 8. Fiscal Crisis Response-Changes in Public Debt and Output. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis. | |
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| 830 | 0 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/17/86. | |
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